Over the past couple of decades, there have been more and more intense discussions globally on the projected population growth, reaching over 9.8 billion by 2050 from the current 8-plus billion.
Hence, there is a general recognition of the need for food security, especially in light of climate change.
The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent wars in Ukraine and the Middle East caused upheavals in food production and logistics, sending shockwaves around the world and bringing food security to the forefront of many governments’ agendas.
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Climate Change and Agriculture
Twenty or so years ago, the buzzwords going around the world were “global warming,” but soon the scientific community and intellectuals realized that, though summer temperatures have gone up more than normal, winter temperatures have also gone down more than normal.
Not only that, floods and droughts have also been more frequent and more extreme in intensity. Hence, the change in narrative and the birth of the term “climate change.”
Excessive discharge of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, arising from man’s activities and consumption, is often cited as the main culprit for causing climate change.
It is often stated that agriculture and food production result in 30% of the greenhouse gases discharged into the atmosphere. Animal husbandry is estimated to produce 32–37% of methane emissions, and flooded rice growing produces 30% of all methane arising from agriculture. Hence, we often see and hear the need to “decarbonize agriculture.”
Having said that, we must also put carbon dioxide in agriculture in perspective and not allow it to be so vilified. Without carbon dioxide, we will have no photosynthesis and hence no agricultural production.
In fact, it is because of the rise in carbon dioxide discharged over the past 50 or so years that the globe is getting greener! Yields of some crops have also gone up, with increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide being scientifically shown to be the cause of the average yield increase over the years.
Sustainability in Agriculture
With climate change being recognized and accepted as real, the need for sustainability in agriculture and food production naturally follows. As mentioned earlier, the need to decarbonize agriculture is the order of the day.
Though the word “decarbonize” contains only “carbon,” it is deemed to be a term used for the reduction of all greenhouse gases, especially methane, which is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping heat and causing climate change.
The European Union has been leading the world in promoting sustainable agriculture, as they have a “Farm to Fork” agenda under their “Green Deal.” The Farm to Fork agenda calls for 20% and 50% reduction in chemical fertilizer and chemical pesticide usage, respectively, by 2030.
Overuse of these chemical inputs, though essential in growing crops, has caused environmental harm, as not only lakes, rivers, and the sea are polluted but farmland and soils are also harmed.
So, along with the need for sustainable agriculture is a need for regenerative agriculture, which focuses on not harming the soil and, in fact, revitalizing the soil microflora, ensuring crop growth is optimized.
During the recent decade, a lot of science has gone into developing biosolutions to supplement, more so than substitute, chemical means.
Biopesticides, biofertilizers, and biostimulants are no longer deemed to be snake oil. Farmers are adopting these biosolutions, though at a relatively slow pace, as they are quite reluctant to change old practices, and consumers of food are also generally not willing to pay a premium for more sustainably produced food.
Can We Have Sustainability and Profitability at the Same Time?
Sustainability, like food security, comes with a price or cost. Technologies and products are already here today to allow farmers to grow crops and raise animals in a more sustainable way.
However, the fundamental issue is that farmers generally can’t get a positive return on investment (ROI) using many of these products and adopting these technologies. This is simply because food prices are too low to begin with.
Food affordability and availability are extremely and politically sensitive in all countries, and governments aim to ensure that the poorest can afford to buy food. Therefore, there is a constant push for farmers to produce more food, even though food is already overproduced globally.
There may be localized shortages or production shortfalls here and there, and occasionally due to floods, droughts, and natural disasters, but by and large, there is no shortage of food from a global perspective.
The fact that many farmers are not making money is a testament to the fact that there is more supply than there is demand!
So, sadly, if farmers strive to achieve even a small degree of profitability, they simply can’t afford to adopt the products and technologies that contribute to sustainability. This is generally true, though there are always some exceptions.
One major and notable exception is the adoption and practice of no-till farming, where large- scale and highly mechanized farming does not plow up the soil before seeding. This not only avoids carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere but also prevents harm to the soil microflora. In no-till farming, weeds are sprayed and, following that, seeding takes place. Valuable soil moisture is conserved too.
This is a good example of regenerative agriculture and a sustainable practice that is highly beneficial and yet does not attract more costs in farming operations.
Do We Really Have a Food Crisis?
The real food crisis is, in fact, overproduction!
We can feed the projected 9-plus billion people today, if farmers are incentivized to produce even more than they are producing today for the 8-plus billion.
Aside from the technologies and products available to allow farmers to produce more and reduce the often-cited 30% post-harvest loss, lots of untapped arable land is also available. Brazil alone has tens of millions of hectares of land that are not cultivated now, though some are degraded but can be rehabilitated. And 60% of the world’s untapped arable land lies in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Agriculture in S.E. Asia—Opportunities and Challenges
Zeroing in on S.E. Asia where we are, aside from rice and vegetables, there are some valuable crops where farmers can indeed make money. Oil palm and durians are two existing crops enjoying good demand and prices. Recently, palm oil prices surpassed those of soybean oil for the first time, and both Malaysia (5.6 million hectares) and Indonesia (16 million hectares and still expanding), being the two largest producers of palm oil, benefited significantly.
Thailand and Vietnam exported USD 7 billion worth of durians to China, and demand is insatiable. Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are relatively newcomers to the export of fresh durians to China.
With coffee and cocoa prices soaring in 2024 due to adverse climatic conditions
lowering coffee production and a virus infestation of cocoa in Ghana and Ivory Coast—the world’s two major producers—there are good opportunities for S.E. Asian countries to beef up the hectarage of these two profitable crops.
Technology and Technological Challenges for S.E. Asian Agriculture
In rubber, durian, and oil palm plantations, a major challenge is finding enough workers for tapping and harvesting. Years and years of research and development to mechanize tapping of rubber trees and harvesting of oil palm fruit bunches have yielded little result.
In the case of oil palm, 80 to 120 million tonnes of biomass waste (palm fronds, old trunks, palm kernel shells, palm oil mill effluent, empty fruit bunch, and mesocarp fibres) are generated every year in Malaysia alone. This does not include the old trunks of 25 years that are felled annually for replanting. In Indonesia, just the trunk waste alone comes to about 50 million tonnes annually.
Ways and means to valorize such agricultural waste are being researched. With the need to be more sustainable, and in trying to develop circularity in the industry as well as to produce green products such as biochar and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), tremendous profit opportunities are there to be tapped.
In paddy rice, there is also a need to reduce methane emissions, and technologies and products are already there. Many Indian farmers are already adopting drip irrigation and the use of plastic mulches to conserve soil moisture. Growing rice with drip irrigation and plastic mulches without compromising yield has already been proven.
Unlike many temperate fruits, tropical fruits generally have a much shorter shelf life of just a few days or a couple of weeks. Technologies and products that can prolong shelf life are critically needed.
Risks S.E. Asian Farmers Face
Climate change—leading to more frequent and more severe droughts and floods, typhoons, and major disease and insect attacks—are risks that farmers have to contend with. Most of the valuable crops, such as durians and tropical fruit, take a few years to get to flowering and fruiting, and they yield and provide a livelihood for farmers for more than 10 years. Hence, if they are killed or damaged by typhoons and severe fluctuations in climatic conditions, farmers—especially many of the smaller ones with little resilience—will suffer immensely.
On top of that, they also face new challenges such as wars and geopolitical rivalries, leading to supply chain and logistical disruptions. Overdependence on the huge Chinese market is also a major risk.
The Role of Insurance
Farm insurance of any sort is not as widely adopted by S.E. Asian farmers, especially small farms. (Of the 570 million farms around the world, 80% are small farms of a few hectares to tens of hectares.) On the other hand, in developed countries that have farms of thousands of hectares in size, such as those in the USA, Canada, Australia, and LATAM, farm insurance is a lot more prevalent and established.
Aside from rubber and oil palm plantations, a vast majority of farms in S.E. Asia are small. Ironically, these small farms are the ones that are least tolerant to risks, and they have practically little to no resilience. In fact, many farmers are tenants of landowners. Hence, any damage to their crops will mean little chance of them springing back—or they just have to keep piling up their debt.
Therefore, there is tremendous scope and opportunity for farm insurance for these millions and millions of vulnerable small farmers in S.E. Asia and globally.
The challenge is reaching out to them and convincing them that they need farm insurance. We often say that the three key inputs for farmers are seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. The fourth one—and by no means the least important—is farm insurance.